{"id":35547,"date":"2017-02-10T13:57:18","date_gmt":"2017-02-10T02:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nofibs.com.au\/?p=35547"},"modified":"2019-04-16T13:31:09","modified_gmt":"2019-04-16T03:31:09","slug":"heatwave-is-nothing-short-of-horrifying-says-climate-scientist-reports-takvera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/heatwave-is-nothing-short-of-horrifying-says-climate-scientist-reports-takvera\/","title":{"rendered":"“#Heatwave is nothing short of horrifying” says climate scientist reports @takvera"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"BOM:

BOM: temperature forecast for Saturday afternoon<\/p><\/div>\n

“This developing heatwave is nothing short of horrifying” said climate scientist Sarah Perkin-Kirkpatrick.<\/p>\n

“Much of eastern Australia has seen heatwave after heatwave this summer, with some seasonal records already broken by the start of February. Night-time temperatures have been too hot for adequate sleep and daytime temperatures have been searing.”<\/p>\n

Sarah Perkin-Kirkpatrick is a climate scientist who has specialised in studying the causes and dynamics of heatwaves. She is an Australian Research Council DECRA fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre, University of NSW. At the annual Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Organisation conference meeting in Canberra this week she was awarded the Early Career Researcher (ECR) award.<\/p>\n

“What is particularly concerning about the developing event is the intensity, where many regions will see a string of extremely hot days with little relief. Much of NSW, QLD and northern VIC will suffer the most, where temperatures will be the hottest, and follow little reprieve from the previous heatwaves.” she said. <\/p>\n

“It is important that everyone tries to stay cool. Don\u2019t work, play, or exercise outside and look after those who may struggle to keep cool, particularly the sick, elderly and very young. Unfortunately, this is just a glimpse of the future, as human influence on the climate increases, so will the number and severity of heatwaves and their deadly impacts.” Kirkpatrick warned.<\/p>\n

At the conference she shared the results of some of her work with the other climate scientists. Her recent PhD generated 10 academic papers published in peer reviewed scientific journals. She articulated in a media statement<\/a> that “Every recent heatwave has been made more severe by global warming,”<\/p>\n

Her work on climate factors that create heatwaves is important as it will allow scientists to be able to identify during a weather extreme the extent to which climate change has been responsible, as well as improving forecasts of heatwaves and assess and plan for their impacts.<\/p>\n

Summary – 10 February NSW and Qld heatwave response<\/h3>\n

6.21pm – Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region (“maximum load to be interrupted is 310 MW at 1706 hrs 10\/02\/2017”)<\/p>\n

5:32pm – Ausgrid say AEMO has downgraded forecast shortfall in NSW generation capacity, reducing potential need for any load shedding<\/p>\n

4.29pm – Climate Council calls for major energy system overhaul for climate adaptation and to meet emission reduction commitments<\/p>\n

3.45pm – NSW Energy Minister Don Harwin saying businesses are reducing demand, asking consumers to use air-con on 26C and avoid unnecessary appliance use. No load shedding likely if people can limit their demand.<\/p>\n

2.20pm – Shadow Environment and Energy Minister Mark Butler speaks to media<\/p>\n

2.15pm – Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull speaks to media and continues criticism of renewables targets for SA blackout<\/p>\n

10.34am – Climate Institute draws attention to stronger more intense heatwaves driven by climate change, with the electricity system needing to become more resilient and address emissions reduction.<\/p>\n

10:00am – NSW Emergency Services media conference on heatwave conditions<\/p>\n

6.31am – BOM says Sydney forecast to reach 38C, low to mid 40s in the west <\/p>\n

6.17am – NEM watch forecasts Lack of reserve Level 2 in NSW region<\/p>\n

4.17am – NEM watch forecasts Lack of Reserve Level 1 in Qld region<\/p>\n

Extreme Heatwave Threat likely to break temperature records<\/h3>\n

On Wednesday around 90,000 people in South Australia lost power for up to 45 minutes due to AEMO order to shed load in the SA Power network due to high demand for electricity as a result of the extreme temperatures. <\/p>\n

This was due to a lack of bids to supply power, although AEMO failed to use it’s authority to order the 2nd turbine of the Engie owned Pelican Point gas plant into use. There was no lack of availability in supply, this was a regulatory failure. See my article: AEMO orders South Australian #heatwave blackout while Gas turbine remains idle #SAheat reports<\/a><\/p>\n

A scorching 39C is forecast for Adelaide on Friday with temperatures in the mid 40Cs in country South Australia. The heatwave is now moving further east and subjecting northern Victoria, all of NSW and Southern Queensland to 40C plus temperature blowtorch. Of concern is high night time temperatures which disrupt sleep and don’t allow physiological recovery. Heat stress often ocurrs on second and subsequent days of a heatwave due partly to this effect. <\/p>\n

Electricity supply in NSW is under threat on Friday afternoon peak due to high electricity demand. NSW electricity Users have been asked to turn off non-essential appliances and power outlets during the late afternoon peak.<\/p>\n

At 4.52pm the Bureau of Meteorology reported in a tweet<\/a> it was the hottest February day at Sydney Airport on Friday reaching 42.9C at 2:24pm, breaking previous record of 42.6C set on 21 Feb 1980. Sydney (Observatory Hill) has now<\/a> recorded 10 days above 35C this summer, breaking the previous record (9 days) set in the summer of 1895-96.<\/p>\n

A Statewide total fire ban is in place for Saturday and Sunday. Broad areas have been declared as Severe and Extreme fire danger. Catastrophic conditions are forecast for Sunday from Central West to the Hunter region.<\/p>\n

As wind speed picks up over the weekend, catastrophic fire conditions as well as extreme temperatures are forecast for much of NSW on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Friday forecast for the weekend:<\/p>\n

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SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: Extreme temps for #NSW<\/a> & #Qld<\/a>. Video current 11am AEDT 10\/2. Info: https:\/\/t.co\/L96rttYYei<\/a> #heatwave<\/a> #fireweather<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/BBPPQ31H6U<\/a><\/p>\n

— BOM Australia (@BOM_au) February 10, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n