{"id":41426,"date":"2019-04-01T00:38:18","date_gmt":"2019-03-31T13:38:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nofibs.com.au\/?p=41426"},"modified":"2022-05-02T12:23:20","modified_gmt":"2022-05-02T02:23:20","slug":"the-wyatt-roy-scenario-why-the-queensland-lnp-prefer-one-nation-qldaah-qldpol-auspol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/the-wyatt-roy-scenario-why-the-queensland-lnp-prefer-one-nation-qldaah-qldpol-auspol\/","title":{"rendered":"The Wyatt Roy scenario and why the Queensland LNP prefer One Nation: @qldaah comments #qldpol #auspol"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2015, Julie Bishop<\/a> declared that Wyatt Roy<\/a> would be the prime minister of Australia by 2029. Journalist Jana Wendt wrote a lengthy expos\u00e9 for SBS<\/a> <\/a>on him ascending to that role. Yet, in the following year, he had lost his Queensland seat of Longman and Ms Bishop was chastising him for visiting the Iraq war zone.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How did Roy die so hard politically in such a short period of time? Part of the answer involves the distribution of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) preferences in the Queensland seat of Longman. It’s the very thing that the Queensland Liberal National Party (LNP) now fear the most in the lead up to the 2019 federal election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As ABC election analyst Antony Green<\/a> recently explained: “When One Nation does well, they overwhelmingly take those votes off the Coalition.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This is the Qld LNP's great fear, the Wyatt Roy scenario. (It's happened before at state\/fed levels in Qld). Where PHON targets the incumbent by placing them below Labor, it splits the conservative vote. As preferences distributed, Labor comes through the centre. #qldpol<\/a> #auspol<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/8anw0FpRNn<\/a><\/p>— David Marler (@Qldaah) March 29, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>