I decided to write a post on what I think will happen if the ALP lose the coming election & the LNP take over the NBN.<\/strong><\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sortius-is-a-geek.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/scrambled-toast-crystal-ball-150x150.jpg?resize=150%2C150\")
<\/p>\n
To start off with, it\u2019s clear that there are no solid plans for an election victory. Everything hinges on 3 separate review processes. Something I think will take time to complete. I\u2019m not going to project 100 days, as this is too short for these reviews to complete.<\/p>\n
If we look to Queensland and what Newman did with the\u00a0Queensland Commission of Audit<\/em>, I think we can get some idea of the time it will take to complete the 3 reviews. It took more than 12 months to complete and release a government response.<\/p>\nI\u2019d suspect that the first thing an Abbott government would do is reshuffle Turnbull to either the backbench (political suicide) or to Environment or something like that again. I\u2019d say someone like Robb will be given Comms, as he\u2019s struggling with Treasury.<\/p>\n
I Give It 1 Star David<\/h2>\nStrategic Review<\/h3>\n
The Coalition\u2019s estimate of 60 days for a strategic review that looks into not only the current plan, but alternatives is laughable. It took multiple panels, committees, & so forth, two years to complete the recommendation for the current NBN, how an alternative will be found in 60 days is beyond me.<\/p>\n
This is the first hurdle, and I feel this could take anything from 6 to 12 months conservatively. Much of the information is already there, it\u2019s just about crunching the numbers & finding new evidence to support inferior plans. NBN Co don\u2019t have the staff or funds to dedicate a whole business unit to this, so there is little doubt it will take time.<\/p>\n
Independent Audit of Policy & Governance<\/h3>\n
![\"Costello\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sortius-is-a-geek.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/costello729-420x0-300x200.jpg?resize=300%2C200\")
<\/p>\n
Costello will be the man charged with destroying the NBN by review.<\/p>\n
The next step is the \u2018independent audit\u2019. This puzzles me, it\u2019s almost like the LNP want to dig through the legislation to ensure that it is changed to benefit specific parties (I\u2019m thinking Telstra & Murdoch).<\/p>\n
The terms of reference look at attacking the root reasons as to why the NBN was created & why the fibre target is 93% of premises. Almost like if reasons are for the audit is to remove a reason to roll out an NBN. Is the LNP overtly telling us they intend to keep a get-out-of-gaol-free card so they can axe the project? Seems that way to me.<\/p>\n
Cost Benefit Analysis<\/h3>\n
This is probably the weirdest part of their policy, as CBAs are well known to ignore societal benefits of massive infrastructure projects, especially when they are government mandated. Much of the data is already available via NBN Co\u2019s corporate plan that is continually revised. A CBA will merely give us the bastard\u2019s snapshot of a company, not a true overview of what impact the project will have.<\/p>\n
This can be little things like being able to call your parents without drop-outs via video chat, or it can be life changing things like being able to interact with more than your carer & not be judged for your disability. How do you put a value on that? Is one housebound person being able to interact with the outside world worth $1 or $1b? I bet if you asked the housebound person the latter wouldn\u2019t even cover it.<\/p>\n
Tick Tock, Post Election Clock<\/h2>\n
![\"Eternal](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sortius-is-a-geek.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/Eternal_clock-300x300.jpg?resize=300%2C300\")
<\/p>\n
The key here is that these reviews will take time, a lot of time. I doubt a single node will be installed before mid 2015, as the reviews not only have to be completed, but the responses formulated & legislation drawn up. This is all without any negotiation with Telstra.<\/p>\n
Telstra is going to be the biggie. They have a huge team of lawyers, they know what their network is worth ($33 billion) & you can bet they won\u2019t let go of it for anything under value. Looking at how long it took NBN Co to get access to Telstra plant (pits, pipes, & lead-ins), an agonising 9 months, we can expect negotiations for the copper network will take longer, anything from 12 to 18 months is my guess.<\/p>\n
Back To The Future<\/h2>\n
With time running out on the mid 2017 target for 5.1m homes to be connected to whatever technology will be at play, there are few options left. With so much not planned, I\u2019m going to give the LNP 18 months to complete the mid 2017 target. If the crews work 5 days a week that\u2019s 13000 premises connected per day, or 1600 premises per hour connected to whatever technology.<\/p>\n
There are literally not enough technicians, engineers, contractors, & manufacturers in Australia to complete this task. I\u2019d say they\u2019d struggle to complete 1600 installs a day, let alone 13000. No doubt the reviews will pick this up & recommend against FTTN due to the time it will take to install 5.1m lines.<\/p>\n
So what will happen? You guessed it! The project will be scrapped in its current form completely. Possibly the LNP will keep NBN Co alive long enough to complete the 22% fibre footprint that\u2019s in the policy, then again, there will be enough leeway from all the reviews to cancel contracts I think.<\/p>\n
There Can Be Only One<\/h2>\n
![\"HighlanderLambert\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sortius-is-a-geek.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/HighlanderLambert-300x188.jpg?resize=300%2C188\")
<\/p>\n
In true LNP tradition, I suspect that the first thing they will do is hand the money to Telstra. Just grab $30b of public debt, hand it to Telstra & say \u201cbuild wireless\u201d. It\u2019s not an earth shattering revelation, Hockey made it clear he thinks wireless is the future, the Young Libs have been spreading FUD on social media about fibre being outdated by wireless \u201cin 2 years\u201d.<\/p>\n
It all leads me to believe there is no intention to offer wireline access to Australians. Turnbull himself made clear that FTTN is only a suggestion & the real technology that will be used is yet to be determined. So all the arguments about FTTN being the right technology are as hollow as the background document supporting the policy.<\/p>\n
We will not get anything like the network suggested in the policy, & to me, that\u2019s wholesale fraud.<\/p>\n
The reason why I think Telstra will be handed money to build wireless is fairly simple: it is physically impossible to build a wireline network to 5.1m people in just 18 months in Australia. The ONLY way to deploy a network that quickly is to have most of it already built & just increase the capacity slightly: Telstra\u2019s 3G\/LTE network.<\/p>\n
This hits the mark on all Turnbull\u2019s current claims:<\/p>\n
\n- 25Mbps minimum (even though actual speeds can be under 1Mbps)<\/li>\n
- 100\/40Mbps at 400m (Category 4 devices are capable of 150Mbps\/51Mbps, but rarely reach this)<\/li>\n
- Cheaper than FTTP (because it\u2019s already built)<\/li>\n
- Sooner than FTTP (again, already built)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![\"Howard](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sortius-is-a-geek.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/103777-130216-peter-costello-and-john-howard-300x168.jpg?resize=300%2C168\")
<\/p>\n
It\u2019ll be like they never left us, except it\u2019l be Abbott & Costello. Wait, where have I heard that before?<\/p>\n
Ok, so many will not believe this is possible until it happens. The LNP are notorious for fucking over comms. Telstra went to the Howard government no less than 3 times with plans to upgrade Australia\u2019s telecommunication network, 3 times the Howard government rejected them.<\/p>\n
At one stage Coonan had no room to move, so just threw her hands up & basically said \u201cwe don\u2019t want to do it because we don\u2019t want to do it\u201d. There\u2019s no need for the reviews, & with the NBN sliding in what matters to voters, I doubt there will be any depth to them. If anything, they\u2019ll be expensive excursions that take longer than expected & add no value to the government\u2019s communications portfolio.<\/p>\n
My cynicism may be taking over, but I have no faith in Turnbull, Abbott, or any of the other technologically illiterate frontbench mates of Abbott to continue the NBN as is, or even as their policy describes.<\/p>\n
If it\u2019s not on the 6 point plan, can we assume the NBN is a non-core promise?<\/p>\n\r\n <\/div>\r\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Margo: Steve Jenkin and Kieran Cummings are regular contributors to No Fibs on the NBN. Here are their takes on its future under an Abbott Government. * *<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[3434,3546,66,585,24,76,508],"tags":[1368,533,231,232,1370,297,331,1369,463,1371],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/BSq2S_FCUAEFRZg.png?fit=599%2C328&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3t0mw-2u3","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9551"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9551"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9551\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56837,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9551\/revisions\/56837"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.nofibs.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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<\/p>\n